Last Friday the AZ Biltmore Hotel & Resort hosted an event, ” Gloom and Zoom” where a panel of real estate experts were assembled to give their assessments of when the real estate market in Phoenix will recover.
The good news is that real estate experts Elliott Pollack, a Phoenix economist, and R.L. Brown, a housing analyst and real estate investor, believe the residential market has bottomed out.
The bad news is they feel we will ”float along the bottom for months, if not years”. They are predicting the stabilization to occur in 2014.
Brown beliefs there are two ongoing concerns that are hindering recover, lack of consumer confidence and job growth. He is quoted as saying, “The mood is down. People are scared. Everybody knows someone who is unemployed or underemployed. ”
Pollack feels the problem stems from ”dearth of jobs and nil population growth creating an economic stalement that won’t loosen for years.” He is quoted as saying, “The ugly truth is that no one knows for certain” when jobs will be created and population growth return.
What are my thoughts? I agree with the “experts” that unless we can stimulate job growth in Phoenix we can not begin to recover. I also believe that there are still a substantial number of interest only loans and ARMS that are going to reset. Until they do we are looking at a steady flow of short sale and foreclosure listings.
What am I seeing out in the trenches that points to recovery? Personally I am seeing prices going up slightly and months of supply going down in SOME areas. In other areas I am seeing no change in the monthly numbers.
Will it take until 2014 to stabilize? Your guess is as good as mine. I guess time will tell.
